Obama's focus on withdrawal could jeopardize Afghan mission

President Barack Obama outlined his buildup and exit strategy for American troops in Afghanistan on Tuesday. Some observers say his focus on troop withdrawal could jeopardize the American mission there.

WASHINGTON -- In a bid to reassure Democrats who oppose the deployment of another 30,000 troops to Afghanistan and to pressure Afghan President Hamid Karzai to reform his corruption-riddled government, President Barack Obama said on Tuesday that some U.S. troops would begin coming home in 19 months.

In so doing, however, Obama may have set himself up for further setbacks.

The Taliban, al Qaeda, their allies and their patrons in Pakistan and the Middle East may see the deadline as signaling a lack of U.S. staying power, diluting incentives to insurgents to switch sides or engage in meaningful negotiations on a political accord.

Instead, they may persevere in their fight, believing they can run out the clock, further erode support in the United States for the war as congressional elections loom in 2010, while pumping up their own ranks. Some members of the U.S.-led international force have already announced their intention to leave.

``It's a big mistake,'' a U.S. defense official who requested anonymity said of Obama's announcement that a U.S. withdrawal would begin in 19 months. ``It just tells the Taliban and everyone else how long they need to last.''

The official said the deadline also could discourage Karzai from acting on U.S. demands to crack down on high-level corruption, implement political reforms and rid the government of warlords who oversaw the rigging of his recent reelection in return for shares in the new government.

``This is also a bold gamble in terms of domestic politics,'' said Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution, a former CIA and White House advisor official who helped Obama draft the initial Afghanistan strategy speech he delivered in March. ``His own party is increasingly divided. The liberal base is tired of it [the war]. The party is haunted by the ghost of Vietnam.''

In his televised address from West Point, Obama said the deadline would encourage Karzai to assume more responsibility for running his country and the war.

``Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground,'' said Obama. ``But it will be clear to the Afghan government -- and, more importantly, to the Afghan people -- that they will ultimately be responsible for their own country,'' Obama said.

Obama's reference to ``conditions on the ground'' suggested that the U.S. troop drawdown could be slowed or halted if the war continues to go badly or if Karzai fails to implement reforms and clean up his government.

At the same time, Obama acknowledged the growing costs of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq at a time of financial crisis and 10.3 percent unemployment.

``We simply cannot afford to ignore the price of these wars,'' he said.

``This approach makes perfect sense in the context of American politics, where compromise is the order of the day,'' said a senior U.S. intelligence official with long experience in the Middle East and South Asia, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he is critical of the president's policy. ``It makes a lot less sense in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where you either win or you lose, and whoever lasts longer usually wins.''

``Our enemies believe we'll always cut and run, like they say we did in Lebanon and Somalia, and by the same token, our allies don't trust us to stand with them for as long as it takes,'' said a senior U.S. military official who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the news media.

News Source: miamiherald.com

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